ASUK says 60-70 lakh cases in India possible

CHRONICLE BUREAU
IMPHAL, 13th Jun: The Alliance for Socialist Unity, Kangleipak (ASUK), the joint body of the proscribed Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), said that COVID-19 pandemic in India has reached a critical phase and is alarming.
Several experts including health minister of Delhi and AIIMS director have pointed out that community transmission/infection of the virus has begun though yet to make official announcement.
If the number of positive cases happens to increase at the current rate and assesses the current situation, India would become a nation worst hit by the pandemic pending development of vaccine. Some health experts observed that India’s positive cases could reach 60/70 lakh and this is not a word of doomster but a feasible arithmetic result. Some health experts also predicted second wave of COVID-19 in India and cautioned people to be prepared to face such an eventuality.
Foreseeing that COVID-19 pandemic would be unable to eliminate in the country, some Indian leaders and intellectuals have started talking about ‘herd immunity’, a thought that an infectious disease (in the present case COVID-19) would extinct from the society when most of a population is exposed to the disease by allowing them normal activities while protecting elderly and sick people. For example, if 80 per cent of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 60-70% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.
Former principal of CMC Vellore Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil supported this thought and government of India too seems to be in favour of this as is evident with the decision to unlock the lockdown when spread of COVID-19 has reached community level.
Fortunately, COVID-19 spread has not reached the community level in Manipur and all the positive cases are imported ones. Nevertheless, people need to be extra cautious to prevent import of the disease from outside. Manipur would be almost free of the contagious disease when secret entry of carrier of the disease stops and positive cases are confined within quarantine centres. However, one important aspect which needs to be discussed amidst COVID-19 pandemic is the problem of economic depression as many global experts predicted that the present depression would be far more severe than ‘the great depression’ of 1929 which lasted for more than 10 years.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted that Per Capita Income of more than 170 countries of the world would be negative this year and world economy in 2020 would fall 3 percent. World Bank (WB) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also predicted 5.2percent contraction of global GDP in 2020.
With India’s economy badly hit by COVID-19 pandemic, Manipur’s economy would be in dilemma as the state survives with grants-in-aid from India, ASUK said.
The joint body of KYKL and KCP also said that the present situation is a ‘moment of truth’ for every native of Manipur in taking decision as any wrong decision would be disastrous but the right decision would help in the survival of the community. The outfit also stressed the need for bringing unity and sincerity among all the communities inhabiting in Manipur and fighting COVID-19 democratically.
The outfit also called upon people to strengthen the community for survival, development and unity apart from taking responsibility as no society would survive without being responsible.


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